As tempted as I am to write a long, pithy post about the numerous talents of Jake Peavy and why he is worth the first born of every Cubs fan, I thought I would instead address another area of need by the Chicago Cubs - the leadoff hitter, aka The Wheel Man. (Note: the leadoff hitter is not in fact called The Wheel Man. I just made that up. If you see it used elsewhere, they stole it from here.)

We all know that the Cubs do not have a wheel man. They don't have a guy who will lead off a game by working 10 pitches before finally drawing the 4th ball, trotting to first, and then stealing second before the Cubs #2 hitter can smack a soft shot into the outfield porch and drive him home. What they have instead is an uber-rich star slugger, a left fielder with great bat speed who also has the ability to steal bases and prefers to bat leadoff despite being better suited to bat 5th. Phew. Long sentences so far in this one.

The cry to let Fonzie be Fonzie is not only plagiarism, it's also wrong. I don't believe he's as flaky as some think he might be, so treating him with kid gloves is unnecessary. After all, we have now seen Soriano bat leadoff for the Cubs through two post season appearances, and in both cases he appeared lost and inadequate. Coincidentally or not, so did the rest of the Cubs lineup and we the fans had to put up with watching our team get blown out by a collective score of 36 to 12. That's 12 runs in 6 games. Do the math. Wait, on second thought don't, because if you're anything like me it will end in a pit of depression, a drinking binge, and waking up in a seedy Detroit hotel with what appears to be a nude transvestite. The transvestite I could deal with, but Detroit? Oh no, my friends, you do not want to do the math.

Rob has already expressed his views that the Cubs need a Real Leadoff Hitter. He believes that it should be a top off-season priority and has suggested that, for a second winter in a row, Jim Hendry pursue Brian Roberts, who is presently wasting away in Baltimore for a perpetually crappy team (thereby proving that a leadoff hitter alone is not enough). However, I thought I'd put the anal back in baseball analysis and take a closer look at the players we already have. After all, surely the Cubs must have somebody who'd be a good leadoff hitter, right? Let's take a look.

Alfonso Soriano - 443 AB, 29 HR, 75 RBI, 19 SB, 3 CS, .287 AVG, 100 SO, 42 BB, .350 OBP, .894 OPS
In his second season as a Cub, Soriano put up those numbers while batting in the #1 spot of the lineup. Pretend he doesn't have a power game, and 19 steals in 22 tries plus a .287 AVG plus a .350 OBP puts him right in line to be a good leadoff guy. But the fact is this - Soriano is a free swinger. His actual numbers leading off an inning - as opposed to batting #1 in the batting order - are not great.
Leading off an inning: 168 AB, .286 AVG, .318 OBP, 36 SO
Leading off an inning '06-'08: 648 AB, 39 HR, .299 AVG, .335 OBP, 135 SO.

Some people are afraid that the Fonz would be too much of a headcase to succeed elsewhere in the lineup. I disagree. He may be one of those sensitive types who needs to know his jorb in order to feel comfortable, but he'd adjust. Quite frankly, he has expressed a willingness to bat elsewhere in the past, but after a shiz-itty start to the '07 season, the Cubs returned him to his comfort zone. He then had an equally crappy start to the '08 season, which leads me to believe the more likely scenario that he's just a slow starter in cold weather. So, relax already and move on. The Fonz is not the solution, nor should he be a problem if he gets relocated to 5th.

Kosuke Fukudome - 58 AB, 3 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 3 SB, 1 CS, 8 BB, .276 AVG, .373 OBP, .804 OPS
Ah, Fukkie. I'd like to take this opportunity to point out that, back in March, our own Rob predicted that Fukudome would put up exactly the numbers he actually put up. Rob, heed your own advice: When asked who would be the biggest turd of the '08 season, you said "People are gonna say FukU because he is NOT going to hit for a high average in 2008... probably around .250. His OBP will still be over .350, though." (You also predicted he would hit 13 homers, by the way.)

The 'dome did not spend a lot of time batting leadoff, and in the second half he also didn't spend a lot of time hitting the ball. But he is above all else a professional hitter, and I am convinced that he'll have a decent 2009. Considering that he has respectable speed - he could probably do better than 12 steals in 16 tries, and I suspect he will next year - and especially considering that he has epic patience at the plate, then Fukudome might be a sensible in-house leadoff guy. However, I am intentionally ignoring his "lead off inning" numbers, because although he has a better OBP in those situations (.336 to Soriano's .318) he otherwise sucks.
Leading off an inning: 104 AB, 4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 14 BB, 24 SO, .240 AVG, .336 OBP, .663 OPS

Reed Johnson - 77 AB, 4 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 0 SB, 2 CS, .234 AVG, .302 OBP, .666 OPS
If I was trying to talk myself into Reed Johnson as a leadoff choice, I promptly talked myself out of it when I looked at that line. However, taking it a step further, in the past 3 seasons as a leadoff hitter Johnson has had 724 AB, and he has a .290 AVG, a .360 OBP, and a .784 OPS. In other words, he's not an unreasonable option.

By the way, his "lead off inning" numbers also sucked last year, but doing the 3 year split thing, Johnson has had 377 at bats leading off an inning, and he's batting .281 with a .342 OBP in that situation. Here's the full splits:
Leading off an inning: 93 AB, 6 2B, 0 HR, 2 BB, 18 SO, .226 AVG, .265 OBP, .555 OPS
Leading off an inning '06-'08: 377 AB, 25 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 19 BB, 71 SO, .281 AVG, .342 OBP, .740 OPS

Ryan Theriot - 68 AB, 3 2B, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 6 BB, 1 SB, 1 CS, .368 AVG, .419 OBP, .831 OPS
I've argued for the past season that Theriot is either a #1 hitter or a #8 hitter. He doesn't have the slugging ability to bat anywhere else in the lineup, and Colin very well might disagree with me even on that premise. Theriot's numbers obviously benefit from limited at bats, but in terms of hitting, getting on base, and stealing, Theriot had a respectable '08. The one concern I'd have with him offensively as a leadoff guy is that he was caught stealing way, way, way too often this past season. His EOBP* was .364 last season, roughly 20 points lower than his OBP of .387.

(*EOBP = Essential On Base Percentage. Basically H+BB-CS divided by AB+BB = EOBP, or the number of times a player was actually a factor on the base paths for his team. It's a stat I invented a few years back that, I swear to Gawd, will someday catch on)

If Theriot can cut down on the basepath blunders, he might be a good choice to bat leadoff. Although, in reality, I believe that like Rich Hill before him, Theriot should be Trade Bait this off season.
Leading off an inning: 129 AB, 5 2B, 1 3B, 18 BB, 20 SO, .287 AVG, .374 OBP, .715 OPS
Leading off an inning '06-'08: 301 AB, 21 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 31 BB, 31 SO, .276 AVG, .343 OBP, .758 OPS

Mark DeRosa - Did Not Bat Leadoff in 2008, nope, not once
Ah, DeRosa, the dark horse. On a team where steals don't matter, DeRosa is a possible leadoff man, although he remains in my mind the best #2 hitter on the Cubs. Just consider even only his career line - .279 AVG, .348 OBP, and he actually was 6 for 6 in steals in '08. If DeRosa returns to the mean and puts up a .350ish OBP next season, he'd still be a fine choice to bat near the top of the lineup. (Sidebar - what's actually most impressive is that DeRo batted 6th last year 243 times and he batted 7th another 150 times, and he still managed to score more than 100 runs for the Cubs. Christ, that was a Complete Offense.)

Also, any way you cut it, DeRosa is one of the best when it comes to actually batting first in any inning. I can't believe this guy isn't batting second in the lineup at the very least.
Lead off an inning: 115 AB, 9 2B, 5 HR, 11 BB, 14 SO, .330 AVG, .394 OBP, .933 OPS
Lead off an inning '06-'08: 331 AB, 28 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 34 BB, 54 SO, .299 AVG, .370 OBP, .820 OPS

And now, just for crits and grins, let's take a look at Rob's Coveted:

Brian Roberts - 609 AB, 51 2B, 8 3B, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 82 BB, 104 SO, 40 SB, 10 CS, .297 AVG, .379 OBP, .831 OPS
Roberts is clearly a pro when it comes to this gig. In all ways, he's better than any Cub out there - but how much better? If I guessed, I'd say that were Colin to crunch the numbers, Roberts might account for a win difference of perhaps 2 or 3 games if the Cubs shuffled their lineup to bat Roberts leadoff.

But the place where Roberts might make a difference is when those 2 or 3 games would count the most - the DS, the CS, and the WS. There are so many little factors that go into playoff success, and I truly believe that the best team rarely wins. It often has a lot to do with luck, and who's hot. Roberts could easily enter the NLDS and tank. Soriano could enter the NLDS and light the park on fire with his bat. We really never know, but any advantage gets put under a microscope in October, and Roberts would be a good one to have. Although I would argue that, realistically, the Cubs do have a few options to bat leadoff who could get the job done, and perhaps their best option would be to find a more potent #3 hitter/RFer. Just a thought, assuming they can't do both.
Lead off an inning: 256 AB, 22 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 26 BB, 40 SO, .301 AVG, .365 OBP, .834 OPS
Lead off an inning '06-'08: 728 AB, 58 2B, 4 3B, 13 HR, 79 BB, 99 SO, .291 AVG, .361 OBP, .796 OPS

Incidentally, over the past 3 seasons leading off an inning, I would argue that the only difference between Roberts and DeRosa is pure speed. DeRo looks surprisingly comparable to Roberts otherwise.

So, who will be the Cubs wheel man? It's a tough call. If the team plays it in-house, the easy prediction is Theriot or Fukudome if he regains his stroke. If the team plays the free agent market and ponies up the cash, the best option may be Furcal. But if the Cubs are looking for their best option for scoring runs in the playoffs, then they need to reshuffle their lineup and pursue another big stick to play right field. A pure leadoff man of Robertsesque quality would be great - great - to have, but this is where I disagree with the Sloth. As great as it would be, it's probably not the end-all be-all move the Cubs can make.

This is mostly just another idea spinning off my last one that is a little bit less complicated.  As many of us should know, Soriano started his major league career as a second baseman for the Yankees.  However, it seems that we are in the need of a RF.  What could this possibly in common?  Hmmmm, well we do, infact, have a second basemen who can play some right field and a free agent market that seems to be completely stuffed with LFs.  So why dont we move Fukudome to center (as planned), move DeRosa to right, move Soriano to 2B, and sign one of the many LFs to play left.  Again, I would just drool to see Adam Dunn play 81 games in the friendly confines.  once again, imagine...

R  SS  Theriot

L  CF  Fukudome

R  3B  Ramirez

L  LF  Dunn

R  2B  Soriano

R  1B  Lee

R  C   Soto

R  RF  DeRosa

-   P   Pitcher

The next several Cubs related posts will be collectively known as THE HUNT FOR BLUE OCTOBER.  The focus will be on the 2008 team and the drive for the World Series.

First up is Alfonso Soriano, who many people already known is a bit of a douche nozzle.

Just within the past week, Deadspin released photos found on a 24-year old woman’s Facebook page that shows her canoodling with the married Soriano.  The photos show Sori in a wife-beater (how appropriate!) surrounded by alcohol and smokes.

The question of his douchyness is less due to him cheating on his wife, which in itself is an unfortunate commonality among all MLB players and sports teams in general.  The pure Cubs question is whether Soriano’s partying like this is on days off or game days?  Is he dropping balls because he is hungover from dropping balls….in chicks mouths?

Tastless, yes.  Unfortunate, yes.  Unacceptable, yes.

This Cubs team is going to go down in history as one of the best of all time.  The last thing we need is a controversy to draw attention away from the field.  Sure, we can crucify Soriano and every other player who does the scummy thing like this, but wait until the season is over.

Helpful Hint: Run Your Mouse Over the Picture

A couple of Novembers ago, I was in Pennsylvania with my brother.  We were at a banquet celebrating the conclusion of a season of rodeo - I am nothing if not multi-faceted - and on the way home, while tuned into sports radio and chattering about who-knows-what, we heard "...signed Alfonso Soriano to an 8 year deal worth a reported 136 million..."

The only problem was that we didn't catch the name of the team that signed him.  I immediately discounted the Cubs.  There was just no way the Cubs would drop that kind of coin on a guy, it was ridiculous to suggest otherwise.  Yet, Karl insisted that he heard the name "Cubs" in that report.  I hijacked his cell phone and made an incredibly expensive, long distance call to Canada, where I asked my fiancee to scour the online news sources to see what was being reported.  She found nothing.  It would be roughly 30 minutes before everything was confirmed, and that was when I knew that, for perhaps the first time in my adult life, the Cubs were serious about winning.

Alfonso Soriano came to Chicago as the most expensive free agent they have ever signed, and as the cornerstone of a resurgent offense that will soon have taken them to their first back-to-back post season appearances in about 100 years.  He also came with baggage.  Let's not forget that this was a guy who almost refused to play for the Washington Nationals when they wanted to move him from second base to left field.  This was a guy who hated batting anywhere but leadoff, despite the fact that he draws minimal walks while hitting prodigious amounts of homeruns.  This was a guy who threatened to be a headcase on a team only a few years removed from the biggest headcase ever.

It's been true that in his first two years with the team, Soriano has continued to worry some of us, and he's displayed behaviors that, on losing teams, would probably have turned many of the most caustic Cub fans against him.  He was moved to center field his first year in Chicago, but within a month the experiment was abandoned and the put him back in left.  He continues to hit way too many homeruns to be a leadoff hitter, but Lou Piniella insists on leaving him there.  He's been injured in base-running plays that could best be described as "bone-headed."  And, worst of all, the most common example of his flakiness, Soriano insists on doing a ridiculous little one-handed hop-catch on almost every routine pop fly that comes his way in left field.  Said hop has also been responsible for time on the disabled list earlier this year, although Alfonso insists that his calf was a ticking time-bomb and he would've been hurt regardless.

And yet, while his antics have annoyed some, Alfonso Soriano's behavior and attitude have elicited few complains from the Cubs clubhouse.  "He's one of our leaders," said Lou Piniella on August 14th of this year. Soriano has been noted for his positive attitude, his constant smile, and his enthusiasm on the field. His constant smile and pleasant demeanor mixed with his deadly offensive ability has to elicit comparisons with another Cub of a bygone era - Ernie Banks.  Is it possible that Soriano has quietly accomplished what Sammy Sosa loudly failed to do?  Is Soriano the positive clubhouse force that the Cubs had lacked for years?

Soriano certainly brings a number of positives to his game.  Despite his defensive oddities, he has one of the best arms in the outfield.  In 2007, Soriano led all left fielders with 19 assists - 6 more than the second best tally, despite having played in 20 fewer games.  So far in 2008, only 3 left fielders in all of baseball have more assists than Soriano's 9, and the major league leader Pat Burrell's 12 total assists come in 46 more games played.  The Fonz may never win a Golden Glove, but he certainly has a Golden Arm.

Equally important to the success of the Cubs has been his bat.  In 101 games played, Soriano has 29 homeruns, 72 RBI, and is batting .289 with a .350 OBP.  He's also stolen 19 bases in 21 tries.  Without Soriano in the lineup, the Cubs are only 2 games over .500 at 25-23.  With him, the team is 30 games over .500 at 66-36.  It can't be entirely coincidental.

Soriano appears to be one of the few players whose numerous problems are easily surpassed by his positives.  Any criticism that can be levied against him can be retorted.  He is only 2 years into an epic 8 year deal, but he has so far been worth every penny, despite his freak injuries, in spite of his little oddities, and that fact alone makes him special.  The Cubs have spent considerable money on Soriano.  He has missed considerable play time.  And yet, Jim Hendry and Lou Piniella have to feel that he's been worth every penny so far.  He's so special when he's healthy that we can put up with the stretches when he's not.  He's the modern day Mr. Cub.  His mere presence elevates the team, his demeanor improves the atmosphere of the clubhouse, and his raw ability and talent turn losses into wins.  The Cubs are the best team in baseball right now because they are well-rounded, but they would be run-of-the-mill without this man.

It remains to be seen if, six seasons from now, Soriano will be pulling his weight on the team.  Who knows, he may not even be a Cub when his contract ends.  But what is true is this - on a team that hasn't won anything since before the Titanic sank, if Soriano helps the Cubs win now, his burden of a contract will absolutely be worth it later, even if he himself can no longer deliver.  It sounds ridiculous, but it's true.

As the All Star Game nears, Alfonso Soriano is becoming a topic of controversy and conversation.  Naturally, he wants to play - even if it might make him appear a little selfish, at the end of the day it's very human of him to want to be there.   However, he appears unlikely to return to the Cubs until the series after the break - assuming he doesn't do a rehab stint first - and the Cubs may be interested in protecting him from the unnecessary risk of injury, thereby denying him a place in the All Star Game.

While I think it's pretty cool that the Cubs have so many players at the game, it isn't entirely necessary that they all play.  I for one would much rather see Soriano wait and come back healthy.

Besides, the objective of the All Star Game is to win homefield advantage for the World Series.  Considering that his timing will be off even if he's healthy enough to play, I'd rather Alfonso not take a bat out of the hands of the NL All Stars. 

Regardless, the man heals fast, doesn't he?

When Alfonso Soriano retires from baseball, he could probably get a job in the horror movie industry. Just when you think his body's been riddled with enough bullets that the threat of doom is over, the Fonz would slowly rise up once more and descend on the horrified teenage campers. He heals that fast. We'll call the movie "The Return of the Fonz," which will be followed by "The Return of the Fonz... Returns Again." We'll make millions!

According to the Tribune, The Fonz - who leads National League outfielders in votes - will shortly be re-examined by doctors in order to determine if he's healing as freakishly fast as it appears. Not surprisingly, Alfonso wants to play in the All Star Game, and he's hoping to be ready before then.

Just keep in mind that Alfonso healing quickly and producing strongly are not synonymous. He may be back in early July, maybe, but he might not be his old productive self until August - if at all this year. That said, it doesn't appear as though Jim Hendry has even thought to consider my sensible idea of cheaply signing Kenny Lofton to bat leadoff until Alfonso's return, so let's hope for two things - a) Alfonso recovers as quickly as he thinks he will and 2) the growing flock of scrubs used to start in his place produce a little.

Goat Friend and Iowan broadcaster Jon Miller recently EMailed me from his boat because he'd noticed something of particular interest. 

To paraphrase - because copying and pasting is just too much like cheating - Jon has noticed that in the 19-or-so games that Soriano has not played, the Cubs have averaged 7 runs per game.  In the 51-or-so games in which Soriano has batted leadoff, the Cubs have averaged 4.98 runs per game.  Pitching-wise, it's a wash - without Soriano, the pitching staff is allowing 4 runs a game, and with him, they're allowing 3.98.  Likewise, without Soriano, the Cubs are 12-7, a .631 clip.  With him, they are 33.18, a .647 clip.

First and foremost, I think that neither Jon nor myself would suggest that the Cubs are a better team without Soriano.  In terms of why they've averaged so many more runs per game without him, a lot of it has to do with the drubbings they've dealt Pittsburgh, and the relatively small sample size.  Over a 19-game span, even the Royals can look like the Yankees.

That said, the real interesting sampler will come over the next few weeks.  I believe Colin posted something to the effect that the Cubs should score roughly 4 fewer runs without Alfonso in the lineup while he's out - how that will translate in the wins-loss column is anybody's guess.  Will the Cubs win roughly the same number of games, except they will be closer in score?  Or will the rest of the Cubs lineup step up and lay some offensive smack down on their rivals?

As we've said about a million times, the Cubs are such a good, complete team, that they should win even without their talented left fielder.  However, my sports fanatic friend at work thinks we're all crazy, because he believes that Soriano is hands-down the best hitter on the Cubs, and they will ache from his loss. 

Burnett: saying the right things

A.J. Burnett has been in the news lately as he has been lamenting for the chance to play in a city where they love baseball.  I've been speculating that Burnett would be a Cub probably since the middle of May.  As we draw nearer to the trade deadline and as the Blue Jays fall farther from contention, it seems likely that they'll be dealing A.J. before the end of July.

As somebody over at the Desipio boards said, it would be like the second coming of Kerry Wood.  Burnett has great strikeout stuff, questionable durability, and he seems to find it impossible to win more than 12 or 14 games in a season.  

However, while I question his durability, Burnett would evoke more confidence than even Ryan Dempster in a short series - at least, for now.  He's not my first choice, but as I said recently, I'd rather see Burnett than no improvement at all.   In the past, Jim Hendry has seemed unable to formulate a Plan B when Plan A fails - this time, however, perhaps he can do everything possible to land Sabathia but keep a trade for Burnett as a backup option. 

Well, here it is. Hoffpauir and Patterson are up. Kevin Hart is shipped out. And Patterson is playing left and leading off today. You could push me over with a feather after hearing that last one.

I’ll hopefully update this post in a little while, but in the meantime, here’s a table showing our options at second base, should DeRosa see playing time in left:

Patterson can run the bases, no question. Projections for defense: DeRosa +4, Cedeno +2, Fontenot -3. DeRosa's played worse than that so far this season, while Cedeno and Fontenot have played better. I don't have projections for Patterson. I’ll leave Patterson at a zero, then, and I’ll leave the other numbers unadjusted for now.

This isn't giving Patterson any credit for his baserunning, which is a plus. And I’m not entirely behind those defensive estimates. Cedeno looks like the best option of the three, although I think Murton is probably a better left fielder than any of them are second basemen. (These, unlike my full WAR numbers, are not adjusted by position.)

From Jump Street, let me state that I do not think losing Soriano is a good thing at all.  Colin whips out the numbers that clearly state that there will be a short term dropoff while Soriano heals.  Obviously Murton/Hoffpower don't produce what he does on an annual basis - if they did, then it would be they making thee eight-figure salaries!  What really sucks is that he just got his legs back.  And Kurt ventures that in the long run, Cubs players of late have not had much luck recovering their power from broken hands, particularly from Soriano, whose main gift from God is his wrists, and this particular fracture metacarpal is closely adjacent to said Wrists of God.

I knew, sitting here watching my guys, Our Cubs, run off the best record in baseball, that it was too good to be true.  Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Sammy Sosa...all too good to be true.  Several times I thought and mentioned that the only thing that could stop us in 2008 is injuries.  When you saw Pujols get hurt and Yovanni Gallardo get hurt, as a hypersensitive, oversuperstitious Cubs fan, you had to wonder...Where's Ours?

Hopefully, this is it.

I honestly think, though, that it could be worse.  I have stated on here time after time that I think Alfonso Soriano is nothing more than a backup generator - a failover system that occassionally - nay, frequently - can carry a team for weeks at a time while everyone else struggles.  There is NO 2007 Division Crown without his September.  And yes, when taken on an annual basis as Colin has, the man produces abundantly.

Thing is, though, is that his contributions are not consistent.  He differs from, say, Ramirez, who pretty much produces at the same rate every day.  You know that, if you write him in the lineup for a week, that he will give you hits three times out of ten, probably a homer, about four RBIs, and he'll walk a few times.  Managers and teams tend to LEAN on people like Ramirez, they count on him, and when players like him lose time, the loss is quantifiable.

With Soriano, on the other hand, you just don't know.  He HAS been giving us more consistent production the past couple of weeks, yes.  But you honestly don't know what we're going to miss out on the next six weeks.  Might he hit 12 bombs and drive in 30?  Or might he hit .150 and chase every pitch thrown at him?  He isn't going to be there, probably the rest of the year, to pick us up when we need it...that's the great loss with Soriano.  Our Plan B is gone for 2008.  However, it isn't the end of the world if Murton plays there the next six weeks.  We could still play winning ball, if...

...we don't forget about the pitching!  Sure, Dempster whipped out his big brass nutts last night and went the distance, and for the moment, you have to feel confident that Wood and Marmol are rested enough.  For now. 

Lemme ax u a question - consider Z's last two starts, do YOU feel confident that he is going to go out there today and mow them down? Do you feel confident that the offense is going to keep bailing Lilly out from under his early-inning catastrophes?  July is only three weeks away, do YOU know where your Marquis de Suck is?  Still with US, that's where he is.

They're talking up Sean Marshall as the next  callup, saying that he has made the most progress in Iowa.  His last start?  Five runs in six innings.  But hey, he only walked one.

We can't lose sight of the fact that we still need a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy, to minimize the amount of time we have to see Wuertz and Lieber and Hart and yeah, even Marmol and Wood.   

Soriano is going to to the DL for six weeks with a broken hand.

The return of Micah Hoffpauir a day early won’t be the end of the roster moves:

Infielder-outfielder Micah Hoffpauir will come up today from Class AAA Iowa to take Soriano's place on the roster. The Cubs need another hitter for the American League parks coming up.

It's possible they could recall either outfielder Matt Murton or infielder-outfielder Eric Patterson from Iowa by Friday. Currently, the Cubs are carrying 13 pitchers.

Mark DeRosa moved from second base to left field Wednesday. Expect DeRosa to see significant time in left during Soriano's absence, which will be about six weeks or even longer.

So, I’m operating under the assumption that two of Patterson, Hoffpauir and Murton will be called up. Hoffpauir has the least baseball talent of the group, so of course he’s the only one that’s guaranteed a callup.

What I’ve done is taken a player’s minor league numbers and figured out their Major League Equivalency – essentially an estimate of how they would have performed in the majors. Then, I combined those numbers with their MLB numbers. All of those numbers were then fed into the ZiPS projection tool, which uses those figures (in combination with their career numbers) to come up with a projection. (I also did a projection on Soriano for the rest of the season, based upon his numbers to date. Here’s an explanation of how projection systems work.) Here’s the table:

All three of them represent a sizable falloff. Hoffpauir is the one most capable of replacing Soriano’s power in the lineup, but that’s really damning with faint praise here. Murton is probably the best hitter of the group, given his superior on-base percentage. (Although his projected advantage over Hoffpauir is mighty slim.)

Of course they still have to play defense. So let’s look at some defensive projections, measured in runs saved/allowed versus the positional average. Murton projects as a +3 corner outfielder over the course of a season, Patterson as a +8. (Soriano projects as a +6; the projections don’t know about his leg injuries this year.)

Hoffpauir’s defense is an absolute cypher. We can look at minor league defensive numbers – Hoffpauir played 13 games in the outfield last season at AAA and was just off the charts bad. But he only played in 13 equivalent games in the outfield, hardly enough to pass judgement on.

What we do know is this. Hoffpauir has been a first baseman pretty much since his days in college. That tells me that, up until Lou Piniella saw him hitting this spring, nobody involved in talent evaluation saw much of a future for him in the outfield. Based on a charitable set of assumptions – that he’s an average defensive first baseman, and that he has the tools necessary to play the outfield – you’re looking at a –5 fielder. Again, that’s the charitable view.

Let’s assume that Soriano misses 36 games, and let’s assume that whoever fills in for him will average 3.1 plate appearances per game. That’s 112 plate appearances. We can figure out runs above average on offense and defense over that period in time. So, put it together and what have you got?

Again: I'm making some charitable assumptions on defense for Hoffpauir. Even still, he lags significantly behind Murton, even while they're basically tied as hitters. The problem is that a lot of Murton’s value is wrapped up in his walks, while Hoffpauir’s value comes more from his low-wattage power.

That’s assuming that any of them were to be filling in for him in left field. There are two other players on the Cubs who could be filling in in left: Reed Johnson and Mark DeRosa. That requires a bit more chaining to figure out, because then you have to also look at who’s playing center or second while those two are playing fill-in. I’ll take a look at that later.