A question that keeps getting asked in one form or another this off season is "just how good would DeRosa be as the everyday right fielder?"  There are very specific ways of looking at it, and very broad ones.  Because nothing beats Thanksgiving like heavy reading on a fringe Cubs blog, and since my preference is to post this large body of work on the day in which the least amount of people are likely to read it, I thought I'd take a look at the Cubs position players and how they compare to the league averages.  However, to justify this beast of a post later on, I will link back to it with great regularity.

First and foremost, let's talk about our concept of League Average. In this incredibly boring article, we will be comparing the Cubs position players against the League Average at their position between wiping tears of shame from our cheeks because of the great sadness we feel at having absolutely nothing better to do.  Call it dedication.

Offensively in 2008, it's pretty safe to say that the Cubs were better than league average.  I mean, they were awesome.  Compare them with all of Major League Baseball:

League: .264 AVG, 300 2B, 30 3B, 163 HR, 753 R, .333 OBP, .749 OPS
Cubs: .278 AVG, 329 2B, 21 3B, 184 HR, 855 R, .354 OBP, .797 OPS

It's obvious that the Cubs were above average overall.  That would also be a strikingly obvious reason as to why they won 97 games last year.  But let's take it one step further and break it down by position:

At catcher:

League: .255 AVG, 31 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 74 RBI, .324 OBP, .713 OPS
Cubs: .284 AVG, 37 2B, 2 3B, 26 HR, 93 RBI, .353 OBP, .836 OPS
Overall OPS: 2nd in MLB

In other words, the Cubs were at a decisive offensive plus at catcher in '08.  Taking it a step further, it's probably not debatable to say that the Cubs were above average defensively at catcher, too.

At first base:

League: .271 AVG, 35 2B, 2 3B, 26 HR, 98 RBI, .352 OBP, .816 OPS
Cubs: .296 AVG, 47 2B, 3 3B, 23 HR, 97 RBI, .365 OBP, .845 OPS
Overall OPS: 12th in MLB

While Derrek wasn't one of the worst first basemen in the game, it's pretty safe to say he's no longer among the baseball elite.  Furthermore, defensively Lee was off his game in '08.  He might be an average defender, but he's probably not above average.

At second base:

League: .275 AVG, 36 2B, 4 3B, 13 HR, 72 RBI, .338 OBP, .747 OPS
Cubs: .300 AVG, 39 2B, 2 3B, 17 HR, 91 RBI, .378 OBP, .836 OPS
Overall OPS: 4th in MLB

The DeRosa-Fontenot Duo dramatically outperformed the league average in '08 although DeRo falls a little short of being considered one of the elite at his position.  Defensively, the Cubs are probably average-at-best at second base, and possibly just a little below average.

At third base:

League: .265 AVG, 35 2B, 2 3B, 21 HR, 86 RBI, .335 OBP, .771 OPS
Cubs: .283 AVG, 48 2B, 1 3B, 32 HR, 129 RBI, .372 OBP, .891 OPS
Overall OPS: 3rd in MLB

Aramis Ramirez and his bat is incredibly important to the Cubs.  Defensively, he's average, if not slightly above average.  A-Ram is an elite third baseman and is tremendously valuable to the Cubs offense at this point.  He should be the #3 hitter next year.

At shortstop:

League: .275 AVG, 34 2B, 5 3B, 11 HR, 63 RBI, .326 OBP, .714 OPS
Cubs: .303 AVG, 26 2B, 4 2B, 2 HR, 53 RBI, .379 OBP, .744 OPS
Overall OPS: 11th in MLB

Ryan Theriot pretty well falls into the "average" range.  And for the point I'm building toward, his numbers would for the most part be "below average" if he played at second base.  Theriot outhit many of baseball's shortstops and he outwalked them, but he was out-slugged and out-defended - in fact, Theriot would fall onto the "below average" side of the defensive coin.  If he lands next year somewhere between his '07 and '08 numbers, he probably won't hurt the team, but he won't be a real asset, either.

At left field:

League: .269 AVG, 34 2B, 4 3B, 22 HR, 86 RBI, .343 OBP, .785 OPS
Cubs: .282 AVG, 43 2B, 2 3B, 35 HR, 109 RBI, .348 OBP, .856 OPS
Overall OPS: 8th in MLB

These numbers are actually a little low for the Cubs.  If Soriano stays healthy over a full season - and he's bound to sooner or later - then left field becomes an even bigger asset for Chicago.  Defensively, Soriano is plus and minus.  He has a plus arm and will lead the league in assists if he doesn't get hurt, but he's got a minus glove that leads to errors and heartbreak.  The Cubs are above average at left field with a healthy Sori.

At center field:

League: .267 AVG, 33 2B, 5 3B, 18 HR, 77 RBI, .333 OBP, .752 OPS
Cubs: .290 AVG, 37 2B, 4 3B, 23 HR, 101 RBI, .374 OBP, .858 OPS
Overall OPS: 3rd in MLB

Strange how center field has become a home for more homerun hitters these days.  On average, your center fielder is expected to yield more offensive bounty than your catcher, second baseman, and shortstop.  It's also strange just how much of a positive CF was for the Cubs in '08.  Reed Johnson and Jim Edmonds made for strange bedfellows and delivered unto the Cubs the Secret Ingredient to their recipe of success, even though they were defensively below average.  CF is unlikely to be a position of strength for the Cubs in '09, depending heavily on the sophomore season of Kosuke Fukudome.

At right field:

League: .270 AVG, 37 2B, 4 3B, 21 HR, 87 RBI, .347 OBP, .797 OPS
Cubs: .250 AVG, 30 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR, 71 RBI, .350 OBP, .731 OPS
Overall OPS: 26th in MLB

Ah, at last, the one position in which the Cubs were decisively below average.  Fukudome started out with a singing bat, but he ended the year with a howling fanbase - even though he has above average defensive skills.

So, what's the point of this?  Well, I'm going to reiterate a few key figures for you:

Consider the following:

League: .275 AVG, 36 2B, 4 3B, 13 HR, 72 RBI, .338 OBP, .747 OPS
Cubs: .303 AVG, 26 2B, 4 2B, 2 HR, 53 RBI, .379 OBP, .744 OPS

This is what happens if the Cubs move Theriot to second base - if we're lucky.  Theriot as a second baseman hits fewer doubles, fewer homers, drives in way fewer RBI, and has a below-average OPS.

League: .270 AVG, 37 2B, 4 3B, 21 HR, 87 RBI, .347 OBP, .797 OPS
Cubs: .300 AVG, 39 2B, 2 3B, 17 HR, 91 RBI, .378 OBP, .836 OPS

This is what happens if we're lucky if the Cubs move DeRosa to right field permanently.  The Cubs almost turn a minus into a plus.  But what if, rather than bat .285 with 21 HR, 87 RBI, and an OPS of .857, DeRosa reverts to his career averages of .279 with 13 homeruns, 64 RBI, and an OPS of .770?  The Cubs would remain below average offensively in RF, and they'd now also be below average defensively.

League: .267 AVG, 33 2B, 5 3B, 18 HR, 77 RBI, .333 OBP, .752 OPS
Cubs: .250 AVG, 30 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR, 71 RBI, .350 OBP, .731 OPS

This is how Fukudome compares to the rest of the league's CFers.  Overall, it's close enough that he'd almost fall into the "average" range, but not quite.  The Cubs would still be losing a lot of offense from 2008.

In other words, if the Cubs sign Furcal, move Theriot to second base, and put DeRosa in RF, they go from this figure:

Above Average: 5, Average: 2, Below Average: 1

to this figure:

Above Average: 4, Average: 1, Below Average: 3

That's not the direction you want your team to head in if they are interested in staying competitive.

Therefore, I'm going to suggest that if Theriot starts on the Cubs next year, he should do it as a shortstop.  I'm going to suggest that if DeRosa starts on the Cubs next year, he should do it as a second baseman.  And if the Cubs want to improve offensively, then they really need to hope for the following things to happen

• An entirely healthy season by Soriano - as the cleanup hitter
• A Fukuseason to remember
• A Geovany Soto immune to the sophomore slump
• A new right fielder who hits that damn ball real good

The Cubs cannot, nor should they count on Theriot to put up similar-or-better numbers (which isn't to say that he'd be a disappointment if "only" ended up playing near his career averages), nor can the Cubs count on DeRosa to shatter all expectations again (which doesn't mean he'll be a disappointment if he only bats .280 and hits 13 or 14 homeruns).  It's just that they need to look elsewhere to find next year's offensive surprises, simple as that.

As fans, we need to recognize that the abilities of our team's players have limitations, and we're only setting ourselves up for disappointment if we expect consecutive seasons of miracles.  Jim Hendry doesn't need to - nor will he - blow up the roster to fix what's wrong with the team, but shifting a couple of guys around and giving more starting time to the journeyman backup infielder who had huge numbers won't cut it either.  The Cubs need to find a way to get a Bradley, or acquire some lefty bats via trade.  Otherwise, they're at risk of headed from Very Good to Very Average.

As we wait anxiously for Jason Marquis to dominate Ben Sheets in a Hall of Fame (snicker) match-up, I thought I'd mention a few fun facts that you might not be aware of right now.

First: with a 91-58 record, the Cubs are percentage points away from having the best record in all of baseball. They only trail the 92-58 Los Anaheim Angels. One key difference between the two teams: the combined winning percentage of non-Angel teams in the AL west is .447. The combined winning percentage of non-Cub teams in the NL Central is .496. And that's obviously because of the craptacular Reds and Pirates.

With 12 (or 13) games remaining this year, if the Cubs went 0-for-the-season, the Brewers would have to go 8-3 just to tie them for the division.

At this point, I think we should refrain from even really talking about it, but the Cubs would need to go 9-4 against a pretty tough schedule to ... well, you know. ::cough::win100::cough::

Predictions:

One thing I've learned is that baseball is not surprisingly predictable, but it is predictably surprising. With that in mind, I'm going to lay out the next month for you.

1. The Cubs will finish the year 99-61. Why? This is a great tease for Cub fans who will debate for years if they could have/should have won 100. But, ultimately, it won't matter.

2. The first round opponents will be the Dodgers. Why? Because LA have played good, hard baseball against the Cubs all year long and it will be a scary series. Especially since Manny Ramirez has been a force of nature since he was acquired from Boston.

3. Second round team - the Mets. Why? New York has a storied history with the Cubs and it will drive Ron Santo to the brink of panic.

4. World Series opponent - Tampa Bay Rays. Now I'm really reaching, but with home field advantage, it is only fitting that the Cubs would play a team that swept them.

I could very well be wrong about all of these, but I suspect I won't be. Obviously, only time will tell. But, all that said, I now feel very confident that this Cubs team has the ability to go all the way. I hope you do, too.

Having shattered our wildest expectations, the Cubs look to exit the month of August with at least the same number of wins that they had all of last season.  Point of fact, thanks in part to this ridiculously awesome 7 game winning streak, the Cubs have not only the best record in all of baseball but they are widely seen as being one of the most complete teams in the game. 

The thing is, I'm a Cub fan.  In my time, I've seen them thrashed in three separate post seasons.  I've seen them collapse and narrowly miss the playoffs twice.  I've seen their best, most talented, most promising players get hurt, often in freaky, bizarre ways.  And on more than one occassion, they've broken my heart.  I'm a Cub fan.  Failure is a part of my language.  Disappointment is not an expectation, it's an eventuality.  Even in this moment, a part of me thinks "what would it take for them to miss the playoffs?"  Because I am curious, but not because I expect it to happen - I don't even really think it's possible - I'm going to crunch the numbers.

The Cubs are 85-50.  They have the best record in all of baseball, but obviously the point of this exercise is to look specifically at the National League.  They now have 27 games remaining.  While it's possible, I suppose, that the Cubs could go 0-27 and break all of our hearts, I'm going to argue for the sake of this article that, over the next 27 games, they will return to earth and match the worst record of any stretch this season.  For the record, that 27 game stretch looks to have spanned from June 15th through til July 19th, when the Cubs went 12-15.  A month of mediocre baseball, folks.  Ignoring that the Cubs were down Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Zambrano, and Kerry Wood during portions of that stretch, it could happen again.

That would put the Cubs at 97-65 to finish the season.  Just a quick aside - let's say they lose tomorrow and then play .500 ball for their remaining 26 games, then the Cubs would be 13-14 and would finish 98-64.  Anywho.

The second best record in the NL belongs to the Brewers, who are 78-56.  They are the likely Wild Card team.  Let's say that the Brewers go on an epic run that lands them in first place, ahead of the 97 win Cubs.  They would have to go 20-8 in their remaining 28 games this season to achieve that.  Hey, it's possible, right?

After the Brewers, the next best teams in the NL are the Mets, Phillies, and Cardinals.  The Mets are currently 75-60, the Phillies are 73-62, and the Cardinals are 74-61.

Let's say that the Mets win their division with 98 wins.  To achieve that, they would need to go 23-4.  The Phillies and Cardinals also play great baseball and win 97 for a three-way Wild Card tie.  Philadelphia would need to go 24-2, and St. Louis would need to go 23-3.

By the way, the Phillies play the Mets 3 more times this season, and they also battle the Brewers for 4 more games.  The Mets also play the Brewers 3 times and they host the Cubs for 4 at the tail end of the season.  The Cardinals play the Cubs 6 times, the Brewers play the Cubs 6 times as well.   Here's where you will get dizzy.

The Brewers could only afford to lose 8 times.
The Mets 4 times.
The Cardinals 3 times.
The Phillies 2 times.

For the Phillies to win their 97 games, they'd have to sweep the Brewers and take 1 from the Mets while winning every other game.

For the Cardinals to win their 97 games, they would have to  at the very least split their final 6 games with the Cubs and win every other game remaining.

For the Mets to win their 98 games, they'd have to sweep the Brewers and the Cubs, which would afford them room to lose 2 more games in September.

For the Brewers to win their 98 games and still allow for the Cardinals and Phillies room to beat the Cubs, then they would only be able to afford a single loss in the month of September after having been swept by the Phillies and Mets.

Still With Me?

Okay, so maybe that's a lot of mumbo jumbo, but here's what it comes down to.  All of this is based on the argument that the Cubs are unlikely to play worse than their poorest spell of games this season.  It's baseball, not math, there is no certain outcome until the last out is recorded (sorry Rob, your wife is right).  The Cubs could lose more than 15 of their remaining games.  The Brewers could win enough games to take the central division title.  The Cardinals may be able to also overtake the floundering Cubs.  But just go back and look at these projections.  It's all very, very bloody unlikely.  

Point of fact, maybe disappointment is an eventuality with the Cubs.  But whatever disappointment is to come, it won't get here until after Game 162.  Although the older readers who know better will disgustedly shake their heads, and despite the fact that Tempting Fate remains a crime punishable by hanging in 15 states including Illinois, I'm going to announce right here and now that the Cubs are playoff bound.  The Brewers can cancel Christmas, the kitchen's closed, it's over.

I will say again that we will almost certainly see one final slide into mediocrity, but these guys are too good to stay there.  For all my life, I've complained about how the Cubs have never won anything without leaving us in suspense until the final moments.  It's been a long time since we've been able to just sit back and enjoy the beautiful thing of watching good Cubs baseball.

Finally, at long last, the Cubs have given us the chance to enjoy it.  So, let's do that.   And, sure, if you want to keep an alert eye on the sky in order to keep the other shoe at bay, then that is your perogative and I won't say I can blame you.  But don't blame me for promoting the contrary here on this blog.  I was recently described by somebody as a guy who has taken the job of convincing people that the Cubs will win the World Series (see the blog title).  I think that's fair.  And if ever there was a year for the unbelievable to happen ...

...well, you know where I'm going with this.  

They've asked the numbers guy to do the series preview today, which means that you're like as not to notice more than a few changes in how things is done. Numbers, away!

I'm using a (slightly) more sophisticated version of the Predict-A-Tron. I'm not modeling for the platoon advantage, but I am modelling different lineups. I also made one essential change, adding bullpens to the pitching lines. (I feel kind of stupid for not having done that sooner.)

The Cubs are expected to score 5.37 runs against RHP per game, versus 5.33 against LHP. Phillies use the same lineups against both sides right now, it seems, for 5.25 runs per game. These are both very good offensive teams.

What may surprise you is how good their pitching is. The Phillies have the third-lowest team ERA in the NL. (And it's not like they get a lot of help from their home park.)

I'm using RA instead of ERA - it's just like ERA, but with unearned runs included. It's much easier to compare to team runs scored per game that way. RAs listed are based upon a Fielding Independent Pitching model, and are estimations of future performance, not performance to date.  (I wouldn't call them projections - they're not robust enough for that yet.)

The bullpens are neck-and-neck - 4.36 RA for the Cubs, 4.32 for the Phils. This may change, however, if they give Les Walrond more innings. (No, I'm not kidding. Les Walrond.)

"Cubs win" refers to their percent chance to win the game.

Dempster (3.62 RA) versus Hamels (3.65 RA) - This is a real ace on ace matchup, and should be a very good game. The Cubs have home-field advantage and should be favored to win, albeit only slightly. Cubs win .546

Harden (2.98 RA) versus Blanton (5.10 RA) - Two Oakland A's pitchers reuniting after this summer's fire sale. Rich Harden has been amazing for his new club; Blanton... has not. I guess 11 strikeouts a game fares better outside of the Oakland Colliseum than whatever Blanton's doing. Cubs win .656

Lilly (4.62 RA) versus Myers (4.98 RA) - Both players have had disappointing seasons; Myers even spent some time in AAA this year trying to get straightened out. That doesn't make them bad pitchers, necessarily. But neither was the ace their clubs expected them to be. Cubs win .533

Zambrano (4.27 RA) versus Moyer (4.47 RA) - You'd really like to think that Zambrano was really, really better than Jaimie Moyer, wouldn't you? Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus doesn't think our rotation has a high enough fear factor without a 100% effective Big Z. I think he got a little annoyed when I called him Joe Morgan. Another game where the Cubs are favored, although not heavily. Cubs win .520

Estimated Win % for series: .564

Cubs should win at least two games, possibly three. This would be a nice series to do some damage in - even though it is a home set, the Phillies are the third-toughest opponent the Cubs have left, and after that we have a nice six-game stretch with the Reds and Astros where we can lard our win count a bit. A strong showing the next ten games could salt a lot of things away for the Cubs.

I updated the strength of schedule worksheet using these win probabilities, and we're just shy of 100 wins expected at 99.9182. That's another reason I'd like to see a strong showing against the Phils; taking three games from the Phillies would seriously increase our chances at 100 wins. I expect the Mets and Brewers to be more motivated than the Cubs at the end of the season, so an early push to 100 would be fantastic.

First off, just a little dedication - Ed in the Burg, this post is for you.

This isn't QUITE ready for prime time yet, so what you're seeing here is a stripped down presentation of my single-game prediction machine, the Predict-a-Tron. (By "machine" I of course mean "spreadsheet.") The internals aren't quite ready to publish, either. (Sure, it all WORKS, but it's ugly as sin and not well documented.) So consider this a trial run. (And at some point, yes, I will stop calling it the Predict-A-Tron. It's almost 1 in the morning and I'm punchdrunk off the spreadsheet fumes.)

First what I did was I modeled each team's expected runs scored per game. I took the Hardball Times Marcels projections, which were just updated today. I guestimated a likely Cubs lineup - Lord only knows what order that Lou will use tomorrow - and used the Pirates lineup from today. Then I took the projections and rated them out to one game's worth.

Essentially, I figured out who was batting where in the lineup - the leadoff hitter is expected to take 12.2% of his team's plate appearances per game, while the number eight hitter takes 10.2% of his team's PAs. Using that, I calculated each team's OBP with a weighted average, and used that to figure out how many PAs each team would consume per game. Then each hitter's stats were prorated out to that number of PAs.

After that, I summed everything up and calculated team Runs Scored using BaseRuns. Given those lineups, the Cubs are expected to score 5.37 runs per game against an average pitcher, and the Pirates 4.74 runs per game

Of course, we're not dealing with average pitchers, are we? I took each pitcher's stats from this year and fed them into a custom version of BaseRuns I developed to predict future RA. (I have a deep and abiding hatred for distinguishing between earned and unearned runs. )

Jason Marquis sports a mediocre projected 4.95 RA. (Average RA in the NL this year is 4.50.) He's still better than Zach Duke, of the wonderous projected 5.09 RA.

From there, I calculated each team's expected win percentage against the average team, using Pythagorean win expectation - .536 for the Cubs, .468 for the Pirates. I added in home field advantage for the Pirates and used the log5 method, and came up with a 52.8% chance of a Cubs victory

Future refinements are possible - I hope to have a version that incorporates platoon splits at some point. If I have the time and energy, I'll try to start feeding this info to Kurt for the series preview.This really works better for a short series than a single game - after all, a 52.8% chance of winning isn't worth betting on once you figure in the vig unless you're getting absurd odds. Consider this a toy - a sophisticated one, but a toy nonetheless.

I'm just updating an older post; go read it for an explanation of what I'm doing.

Last I wrote about the Cubs' strength of schedule, I anticipated them having a .702 win percentage over the past six games. That didn't come to pass, mostly because a team can't go 4.21200 and 1.78. They did go 4 and 2, which I think is close enough. (5 and 1 would have been better, but I'm not greedy.)

The Cubs have fewer home games left on the schedule, and tougher opposition to face than they did a week ago, but their win expectation has actually gone up. Why? The Cubs have been doing a lot of winning big, which has increased their win expection - remember, I'm using a variation of Pythagorean win percentage, which is based on a team's runs scored and runs allowed. The rather embarassing loss to the Nationals wasn't enough to offset this.

So the current expectation, based on the log5 method, is 99.4 wins, just a tick above the 98.9 wins from the last report. Same as last time, right now it looks like the Cubs' big test is going to be the four-game set against the Mets. Everyone is talking about the final series against the Brewers, but the Mets are (just slightly) a tougher opponent than the Brewers, and its a four game set.

It may not matter, though. Based on the model, the Cubs are expected to be at 96 wins by the time that series rolls around. The Cubs' magic number to clinch a playoff spot right now is 23 games, so the Brewers would have to go 24 and 7 to keep the Cubs from at least clinching a playoff spot by then, or a .774 win percentage. That's not impossible, strictly speaking, but I have to say it's not likely.

So long as we're on that note, the Cubs are expected to have between 97-98 wins to start the series in Milwaukee, again based on the model. That's 16-17 wins; their magic number to win the division is 27. The Brewers would have to go 19 and 9, or a .679 win percentage, to keep the Cubs from clinching the division by the start of that series.

Now, this is simply a model, anda pretty simplistic one at that. (I'm not modelling individual pitcher matchups, which is the one thing I really wish I was doing - I'm working on it, but it's very difficult to figure out probably starters a month in advance.) And there's a reason they play the games, after all.

Apparently the widget is giving people fits, but here's a link. Check the second tab.

It is August 25th, and the Cubs have the best record in baseball.  I can't tell you how long it's been since the Cubs had the best record this late in a season, although even money says 1945 at the latest. 

The Cubs are currently 30 games over .500.  They've only finished 30 games over .500 once in the last 60+ years, and that was in 1984.  On August 25th of that season, the Cubs were 75-53, or 22 games over .500.  In other words, they remain at the best pace we have ever seen in our lifetimes.

In fact, with 32 games remaining, if the Cubs go .500 the rest of the way out, they will finish the year with 96 wins - equalizing their win total from 1984.  Anybody here think the Cubs will only go .500 the rest of the way out?

Yesterday I mentioned that the Cubs would have to go 20-12 to win 100.  It's very doable, but not quite as important as winning 11 games after September 28th.  What I failed to mention is that, at this point, the Brewers would have to go 21-10 just to finish a game better than the theoretical 96-win Cubs, and the Cardinals would have to go 26-5.

In the rest of baseball, it breaks down like this:

The Cubs are 9 games ahead of the first and second place Mets and Phillies in the loss column. 

The Cubs are 12 games in front of the first place Diamondbacks.

The Cubs are .5 games ahead of the first place Rays and first place Angels.

The Cubs are 5 games in front of the White Sox.   

No matter how you cut it, the Cubs have dominated this season.  It's more impressive, though, when you consider that they play in a division in which the third place team, the Cardinals, has a better record than any other divisional leader in the National League.  

In other words, unlike the Angels who play against nobodies, the Cubs have achieved their record by regularly defeating good teams.  No other team will be quite as battle tested as the Cubs come October, and I remain ever-confident that, for once in our lives, we follow the team to beat.

So, inspired by Kurt’s very similar post, I decided to look at our schedule for the remainder of the season.

I took win percentages from Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA odds report, which is a more complex and accurate version of this. (It regresses a team’s record based on their PECOTA projections, and it uses the Pythagorean win expectation using a strength of schedule adjustment.) Home field advantage was .040, which is probably a little low for this year but it’s applied consistently. (If you have your own notions of home field advantage, fell free to play around with the spreadsheet.) Then I used Bill James’ log5 method to figure out each team’s odds of winning each game.

This doesn’t take into account the change in win expectation based upon the cycling of the starting rotation; obviously the Brewers are more formidable when C.C. Sabathia is on the mound and… less formidable when Jeff Suppan is pitching.

Widget powers, activate! (Fully editable, if you wish!)

So, what's the takeaway?

1. The Cubs still have 50% of their games left at home. Sweet.
2. We don’t have a particularly tough schedule left.  Average adjusted win percentage of our opponents? .476! Add in home field advantage, and our opponents are still on average sub-.500 teams.
3. I would love nothing more for the Cubs to go on a hot streak here and push that “99” over on the far right up to a “100.” The Cubs have real 100 win potential, which would be super sweet.
4. Our toughest series is probably the four-game set against the Mets; and I’d expect them to be more highly motivated than us at that point, because their lead in their division is slimmer than ours and they don’t have the cushion of the wild card awaiting them.

In light of Rob's most recent post, I thought I'd share a few stats with you good folks.

Obviously, the season is not over yet, and we've learned from hard experience that no lead is safe.  But, at the moment, the Chicago Cubs are 76-48 with 38 games remaining.  They hold a 5.5 game lead on the Brewers.   More impressive than that, the next closest team to the Cubs in the NL are actually the Cardinals, who are 7.5 games out.  In the loss column, the first place Mets trail the Cubs by 8, and the first place D-Backs/Dodgers trail them by 12.

If the Cubs play .500 ball in the remaining 38 games of the season, then they will finish with a 95-67 record.

To overtake the Cubs, Milwaukee, who plays 37 more games this year, will need to go 25-12, or play at a .676 clip just to overtake the Cubs if they finish .500!

To keep the Cubs out of the playoffs entirely, the Cardinals, who play 35 more games, would need to go 26-9, or play at a .743 clip.

If the Cubs play .500 ball, to overtake them for the best record in the NL, the Mets would need to go 28-10, or .737 ball.

The D-Backs/Dodgers would have to go 32-6 to finish with a better record than the Cubs.

Now, for a few other fun facts.  

In their 38 remaining games, the Cubs play the following teams:

3 vs. the Nationals (44-81) at Wrigley, the Cubs are 1-2 vs. the Nationals
6 vs. the Reds (55-70), 3 home, 3 away, Cubs are 5-4 so far vs. Cincy
3 vs. Pittsburgh (55-69), at Pittsburgh, the Cubs are 11-4 vs. the Pirates this season
6 vs. Houston (63-61) 3 home, 3 away, the Cubs are 6-6 so far vs. the Astros
4 vs. Philly (66-58), at Wrigley, the Cubs are 1-2 vs. the Phillies this season
4 vs. NY Mets (68-56) at Shea Stadium, the Cubs are 2-0 vs. the Mets this season
6 vs. St. Louis (70-57) 3 home, 3 away, the Cubs are 5-4 vs. the Cards this season
6 vs. Milwaukee (71-54) 3 home, 3 away, the Cubs are 6-4 vs. Milwaukee this season

In other words, they play 12 games against teams currently under .500, and 26 games against winning squads.  They are currently 17-10 against the losing teams on their schedule, but they are also 20-16 against the winning teams.

It's all a crap shoot, and while we clearly can't predict with accuracy how the Cubs will actually finish the year, even if we only play the averages - which fail to take into account things like the absences of star players, strange slumps, etc. - then the Cubs could be expected to go 22-16 the rest of the way.  That would put them at 98-64.

Me, I still think they're going to win 100, but I don't care if they squeak into the playoffs with 90 wins, so long as they win 11 after September 28th.

Sooooo... Fukudome. I'll let the widget do the talking:

I hate looking at monthly splits, because there's so much noise and you can back yourself into a corner with selective endpoints real quickly, but since everyone's talking about how he's "hit a wall" or somesuch I figured I should address it.

A few things stand out:

• His line drive rate seems fine, but his batting average on balls in play seems to have dropped in August. That's something I expect to correct itself. You keep hitting line drives and eventually the ball will drop into play.
• He's not swinging at more pitches, which is contrary to what I hear everybody saying about him. He's still taking pitches. But his contact on pitches he is swinging at is down.

Remember - these are small samples of performance grouped by essentially arbitrary endpoints. I suppose the next question is, are pitchers pitching him differently? That's next time.